Bayesian Analysis and P-Values

The history of statistics

Advanced algebra techniques

Introduction to calculus

P-values and Bayesian posterior probabilities

The probability of success is 0.5

The probability of success is 0.7

The probability of success is 0.3

The probability of success is 0.9

0.05

0.047

0.1

0.02

0.96

0.5

0.8

0.1

A situation where Bayesian probabilities are always higher

A situation where all statistical models are incorrect

A situation where p-values and Bayesian probabilities disagree

A situation where p-values and Bayesian probabilities agree

Small effect size

Equal prior model probabilities

Large number of observations

Precise alternative hypothesis

Because it only occurs in small datasets

Because p-values and Bayesian probabilities measure different things

Because it is a rare occurrence

Because it only applies to normal distributions

The likelihood of the alternative hypothesis

The overall accuracy of a model

The predictive ability of a model

The compatibility of data with the null hypothesis

The likelihood of the null hypothesis

The overall accuracy of a model

The predictive ability of a model relative to others

The compatibility of data with the null hypothesis

A large sample size

At least two well-thought-out models with informative priors

Only one well-thought-out model

A precise null hypothesis