Demographic Transition Model

The DTM is based on historical population trends of birth rate and death rate, suggesting that a country’s total population growth rate cycles through stages as it develops economically.

Each stage is characterized by a specific relationship between birth rate and death rate, affecting a country’s total population.

In Stage 1, both birth rates and death rates are high, resulting in a fairly constant population size with major swings due to events like wars or pandemics.

Stage 2 sees a decline in death rates due to modern medicine, while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth.

In Stage 3, birth rates gradually decrease due to improved economic conditions, increased women's status, and access to contraception, resulting in continued but slower population growth.

Stage 4 is characterized by low birth and death rates, stabilizing the population, with strong economies, higher education levels, better healthcare, and a fertility rate around two children per woman.

Stage 5 may include countries where fertility rates fall below replacement level, and the elderly population exceeds the youthful population.

The DTM does not account for variables like migration, nor does it predict the duration a country will remain in each stage.